However, the problem of tomorrow should be the debate of today, and tomorrow’s problem increasingly looks like competition and potential conflict over the polar regions rather than the false premise of preparing for a traditional war in Eastern Europe or the South China Sea. Without an adequate US response (and coherent polar strategy), China and Russia will continue making gains in the polar regions, leading neighboring polar states to rebalance their military postures and alliances to keep pace in the evolving polar strategic competition.Īs of 2021, the possibility of polar warfare with China and Russia remains low. Absent military confrontation, the United States will not contain the ambitions of China and Russia in the remote regions of the Arctic or Antarctica. 2 Neighboring polar powers are orienting their policies, postures, and military capabilities toward each region because the current international order looks increasingly orderless. The polar regions are changing, with projections of ice-free summers in the Arctic and Antarctic by 20 respectively, meaning their strategic value propositions are increasing. This indifference has resulted in a bipolar problem of China and Russia circumventing American power in the Arctic and Antarctica. While US leaders have had spurts of polar interest throughout the years, with occasional demonstrations of presence and power projection, polar apathy has been the norm. 1 More than seven decades later, the United States still does not devote enough strategic thought to the Arctic or Antarctic. Cruzen, US Navy (1948)Īdmiral Cruzen’s ominous statement may sound like it comes from a science fiction novel, but he said this to an audience at the US Naval War College in 1948. As a result, our pre-war strategic thinking and our military and naval training was largely confined to the tropic and temperate zones. Before the war little or no consideration was given to the strategic potentialities of the Polar Regions, either north or south.
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